抽象科罗拉多马铃薯甲虫 （Leptinotarsa decemlineata） 和马铃薯蛾 （Phthorimaea operculella） 属于世界上最危险的入侵物种名单，包括俄罗斯，它们对农业造成了重大破坏。然而，在当前气候下它们的空间分布模式、对俄罗斯的经济影响以及全球气候变化条件下的未来范围动态尚未得到描述。在俄罗斯，这两个物种 L. decemlineata 和 P. operculella 分别于 1960 年和 1980 年首次报道。在这项研究中，我们使用集成建模 （eSDM） 方法预测了俄罗斯害虫的潜在分布，发现随着未来全球气候变化，将出现从南到北和从西到东两个方向的范围扩大趋势。介绍了在俄罗斯气候变化的不同模式和情景下，物种在世界范围内分布的历史以及 2020 年至 2100 年期间的当前和潜在范围，以 20 年为步长。提供了有关原生范围、生物学特征、寄主植物损害和危害特征、物种识别方法、入侵媒介和经济损失估计的信息。预测的物种范围对于制定措施以尽量减少 L. decemlineata 和 P. operculella 的未来入侵及其有害影响非常重要。
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Range Dynamics of the Invasive Insect Pests Colorado Potato Beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) and Potato Moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller, 1873) (Lepidoptera, Gelechiidae) in Russia under Global Climate Change Conditions
AbstractThe Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) and potato moth (Phthorimaea operculella) belong to the global list of the most dangerous invasive species in the world, including Russia, which cause significant damage to agriculture. However, the pattern of their spatial distribution under the current climate, economic impacts in Russia, and future range dynamics under global climate change conditions have not yet been described. In Russia, these two species L. decemlineata and P. operculella were first reported in 1960 and 1980, respectively. In this study, we used ensemble modeling (eSDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of insect pests in Russia and found that, with global climate change in the future, there will be a trend of range expansion in two directions, from south to north and from west to east. The histories of species spread in the world and the current and potential ranges in the period from 2020 to 2100 with a step of 20 years under different models and scenarios of climate change in Russia are presented. Information on native ranges, features of biology, characteristics of host plant damage and harmfulness, methods of species identification, vectors of invasion, and estimation of economic damages is provided. Predicted species ranges are important for developing measures to minimize future invasions of L. decemlineata and P. operculella and their harmful effects.